Adaptation of critical infrastructures in Brazil

The impacts of climate change on critical infrastructures - for example, facilities and assets that are essential for the functioning of society and the economy such as dams, roads, drainage systems - are becoming very significant in terms of their costs, threats to public safety and disruption of people and cities' lives.
 
The 2024's flood events in Rio Grande do Sul, with recuperation costs estimated at R$ 15 billion (about 2,100,000 GBP), are a warning of the real risks and challenges involved. As these infrastructures were designed decades ago, most of them may not withstand the new climate conditions, especially considering the increased probability of extreme weather events.
 
It is required to adopt adaptation policies that increase resilience of infrastructures, based on sound evidence that identify the real physical and its consequent economic impacts of climate change on critical infrastructures and considering the uncertainties about climate change trends. The project aims to solve exactly this point, by providing evidence through a robust study developed by economists, engineers, and public administrators.

The project’s main objective is to support the Brazil’s Long Term Development Strategy (Brazil 2050), led by the Budget Planning Ministry (Ministério do Planejamento e Orçamento), by developing technical and economic analyses that identify large and relevant infrastructures in Brazil with greatest vulnerabilities to climate change (urban drainage, dams, landslides, coastal zone and transport) and identify what should be priority adaptation actions, based on sound technical and economic analyses.

To achieve this goal, the project is structured around three broad components:

1) identifying and selecting a group of CIs in Brazil, with strategic economic and social services

2) identifying their major vulnerabilities to different climate change hazards through comprehensive climate and hydrological modelling and risk assessments under different climate scenarios, as well as quantifying the economic costs of the expected impacts;

3) proposing concrete adaptation interventions to minimize such risks, including through nature-based solutions.